Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator
Is your strategy actually profitable? The math, not the feeling. Free, instant, no signup.
Expectancy / trade
+$50.00
positive — profitable
Risk : Reward
1 : 2.00
avg win vs avg loss
Breakeven win rate
33.3%
yours: 50.0%
Projected monthly
+$1,000
20 trades/month
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What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). It is the average amount you make or lose per trade over the long run. A positive expectancy strategy makes money over enough trades; a negative one loses money no matter how disciplined you are.
What win rate do I need to break even?
It depends entirely on your risk-reward ratio. At 1:1 you need over 50%, at 1:2 you only need over 33%, and at 1:3 over 25%. This is why traders with a 40% win rate can be highly profitable — their winners are much bigger than their losers.
Why does my strategy feel profitable but lose money?
Memory is selective: winners are memorable, losers get filed under bad luck. A high win rate with occasional huge losses (negative expectancy) feels great day to day and bleeds money over months. The only fix is measuring — log every trade and compute the real numbers.
This tool is for information only and is not financial advice.